IS IT MY IMAGINATION OR ARE TRANSFERABLE

[D Edwards]

MACHINE GUNS NOT SELLING WELL TODAY?

[Mark2]

Out of curiosity what are you basing the daily sales figures on? FWIW Today I bought a Colt 1928 Navy Thompson that has never seen the internet or market  since 1971. 

Edited April 15, 2025 by Mark2

[eMGunslinger]

Stuff is selling just fine, peoples prices just haven't adjusted to the fact there isn't as high of a demand with the current economy and no real political pressure. It always goes in cycles like anything else.

[MPFiveO]

Nothing is selling right now. Have you seen the stock market lately? I don't think anyone is buying high priced luxury items unless they are well insulated against the current level of inflation despite Trump trying to lower it. The machine gun market is artificially inflated anyway. If it weren't for the 1986 FOPA a used M16 would sell for about the same as a used AR. But, you've gotta have that stamp if you want to go out and play with one if you don't want to worry about having a jailhouse wedding. That's worth everything.

[Got Uzi]

Not to mention prices haven’t adjusted back to reality from where they were during Covid. Prices jumped 20%-30% during Covid and they have increased from there as people were betting they’d be good to hedge against inflation….those that did that, drove the high end stuff even higher, causing the lower end stuff to increase. When that happened the buyer pool for lower end ($7.5k-$15k guns) shrank as they were either priced out, or had to use their “play money” to survive on.
 

Now that the high end “investment MG owner” has bought up all he or she wanted, they have stopped buying and the market on the top has flattened off. The rest of the market hasn’t settled back down to reflect this and it’ll take awhile for that to happen. What will also happen is dealers will sit on lower end MG’s vs selling for below the “market price” and things will continue to stay flat for awhile longer. It’ll take something out of Washington to cause another “panic” and things will get stupid once more. 

[Chef]

Everything will sell if you price it right.

Every buyer wants a "deal", and every seller wants "top dollar". And this is where the problem lies.

For example, if you happen to be lucky enough to have a pre-sample Mp5 that you bought for $15k 5 years ago and it was re-classified as a transferable, you could sell it in a day for $50k. But if you were greedy and watched the Morphy's auctions and saw a couple sell for $70-$80k, then you figure that's what you can get for yours too, and you don't want to feel like a fool for leaving $20-$30k on the table.
But these sellers don't see the reality of it.
Yes, there were a couple of people who bid up those Morphy's guns , but those were anomalies, not benchmarks. And a seller will never get that kind of price from one on the open market today.

If sellers would just use the search function on this forum and look at what actually sells and what lingers unsold, they would know how to price their stuff correctly for the market and it would sell. 

If you paid $15k for it, you don't need to feel "ripped off" if you sell it for $40k. You made $25k profit. Be happy about that. Because who knows what tomorrow might bring.

Bottom line is, if you list a MG for sale here and it doesn't sell in 24 hours, you've priced it too high.

[Got Uzi]

The other thing with people listing MG’s at “auction house prices” is they only see the hammer price and don’t take into account the 20% sellers fee and the 1099 to pay tax on it….those $70k-$80k numbers disappear really quick and you are left with a number closer to that $50k all said and done. 
 

You are correct in saying that the Mg hobby is being driven by greed. In many cases people have penny’s on the dollar in something but demand top of the market plus 20%

[StrangeRanger]

I see a trend in the demand for belt-feds decreasing even at reduced prices.  The supply of cheap surplus ammo is drying up and making them too expensive to shoot.  Mag-fed LMGs even those in odd calibers still seem to be moving if priced right .  Apparently eating 20-47 rounds at a time is less of a disincentive that eating 100-250.  For SMGs it all comes down to pricing. 

[Got Uzi]

Don’t forgot the region in which one lives too…..it’s getting harder and harder to find places that will allow full auto rifle caliber firearms. 

[huggytree]

Prices are down 10-15% from their highs. Most sellers are asking 10-20% too much and many won’t budge $1 .  They are waiting for a sucker to come along. Big dealers rely on those suckers. They hold guns for 6-24 months to sell them. Price a gun right and it sells fast

People are greedy

[Don.]

I haven’t noticed anything.  Ammo prices are slowly coming down.  FRTs are cheap, as is the Title I crap they transform.  As always , if I want to buy, it’s worth its weight in gold.  If I want to sell, what I’m selling is garbage.  Now their garbage has lost its gold value and I don’t want or need it unless the price is right.

I’m buying at the bottom of the market so I can sell when the next panic opportunity hits again.  It helps not having any debt.  Life is great!

[gamebit21]

    Hello fellow comrades!! Awe…. You all are discussing the inevitable points of capitalism and consumerism…. You have to keep  capitalising on making more capital…. You eventually are consumed by consumerism…. 
    At the end of the day, you can be a shooter of machine guns or in investor of machine guns…. You can not be both…. Eventually one person will extinguish the other….  Even though capitalism is the best system, it is still a flawed system because it involves people who are all imperfect and flawed…. Just remember one thing…. GREEDY WESTERNS!! THEY ALWAYS WANT MORE MONEY!!

[reichstall]

As I am new to this only had mine for 2 years. I like to look but the prices have gone sky high, and I am happy folks can afford them. As for me I guess I'm happy with what I have there is a lot more things I buy with 50000 than a gun.

[Aaron in Mohnton Pa]

Compared to the sales my company has seen over the last 10 years; Machine gun parts sales have completely fallen off a cliff..... Almost non-existent...which is bad news ... I am sure there are factors other than just the economy, but it is really bad right now. 

Aaron

[gftiv]

Parts. People do not need parts if they do not shoot their guns. How many spare parts do you need?

 

[Aaron in Mohnton Pa]

@gftiv ….Rental ranges , people building post samples, people building semis , all of the manufactures doing defense contract work that have a need for parts and components 

Edited April 19, 2025 by Aaron in Mohnton Pa

[Frank I]

In my experience...

The prices you balk at today, you will be glad to pay tomorrow...

[Chef]

Prices often inflate to the point people refuse to pay.

Look at the ex-pre sample MP5 in the marketplace today. Seller is asking $65k for it and it's been sitting with no interest for almost two months now.
If the price dropped to current market level, (currently $50k-ish) it would sell within the day.
And there's another one priced at $80k! It's never going to sell for anywhere near that.
Just because a big auction house managed to pull that from a sucker doesn't mean that's the new market price!

And parts...
When it gets to the point that a M60 bolt is $1k, or an op-rod is $1,200, the people who own them won't be shooting them anymore, and it's not because ammo is so expensive.
So the "need" for replacement parts for older and obsolete firearms will disappear when they get too expensive.

[Aaron in Mohnton Pa]

@Chef does that apply to stoner parts too? Because the prices for them is insane … 14,000 for a top cover or something like that?  But they sell … Unfortunately, like with Stoners, the military no longer uses a lot of these guns and the parts are becoming harder and harder to find (if they can be found at all) …. And when you do find them, they are extremely expensive.

regardless, take that out of the equation … The market in general (machine guns, parts , mounts etc) is down. Everyone engaged in the industry that I have talked to says the same. 

Edited April 20, 2025 by Aaron in Mohnton Pa

[Rex Tyson]

I feel like I need to add my opinion since one or two of these posts are leaning in my direction.

When a person prices something it doesnt matter what their cost is in relation to the selling price. Its not greed its market. Do you think that the people that still hold Bitcoin that they bought for fractions of a penny shouldnt sell it for market at 85,000? Is that greed? What about any of us that have property. Should we not sell at the top of the market?

 The Morphys prices are relevant to the market. It doesnt matter if fees or taxes or anything else is included in the price, thats what someone had to write a check for. Thats the market. There were three (or more) that I recall. Do I think I will get 80 out of mine, no. Would I take 50, no. Mine is a little more unique and I know the provenance behind it. When has any factory original gun been worth the same as a conversion? It doesnt happen with SP1 conversions and M16's or anything else that I am aware of. What about those UZI's? Original guns sell for more. Always.  I suspect that someone that got a presample for 50 will probably make some money on that sooner or later.   There are tons of speculative ads on these boards. Just scroll through there. Now do I throw out a number to start a conversation, yes. Maybe an offer somewhere in between? And Im not always like that on everything. Why is it OK to lowball a seller than a seller highball a buyer?

  I think it is believed how fast something sells is relevant to the market price? That just means it was too cheap or the right guy saw it, if it sells quickly. Some people have to sell them. Im not one of those people. The bottom line on mine is I have less in it than some of my semi guns. I dont have to sell it and I am not really motivated to sell it. That may set me apart from others.  There are tons of people out there with the disposable cash that would make us all blush. Or maybe the most discriminate person that wants that one gun that is perfect for him? There are plenty of examples that you can think of that someone will buy that seems crazy to us. 

 These discussions on pricing come up all the time through all the years. I have been a dealer for 24 years and never dreamed that things would get to the point they are now. My earliest recollection of HK sears and M16s were in the 4-5,000 range. We all know they started out way below that. Certainly the market has driven those values, so why not now? There are a ton of sales that happen from phone calls versus a "I'll take it" on a board that you never know about.  Ruben continually sets the bar and everyone follows. Take a look at his website right now.  Are there cheaper guns on the market, yes. But he sells them everyday.  It all comes down to the old saying its only worth what someone will pay and that goes for anything. 

 I agree with Frank though. I would gladly give back any money for any machinegun I have ever sold. Thats just my thoughts.

Rex

[Frank I]

A few years ago, I did an article for SAR magazine about "The Good Old Days" of machine gun buying. 

I think you will find it both interesting and amusing.

https://smallarmsreview.com/the-good-old-days-2/ 

"If M16s were still $500.00 few would be motivated to sell them"

 

[WI Hunter]

1 hour ago, Frank I said:

A few years ago, I did an article for SAR magazine about "The Good Old Days" of machine gun buying. 

I think you will find it both interesting and amusing.

https://smallarmsreview.com/the-good-old-days-2/ 

"If M16s were still $500.00 few would be motivated to sell them"

 

Interesting and amusing, thanks.

[Uncle Zeek]

14 hours ago, Frank I said:

A few years ago, I did an article for SAR magazine about "The Good Old Days" of machine gun buying. 

I think you will find it both interesting and amusing.

https://smallarmsreview.com/the-good-old-days-2/ 

"If M16s were still $500.00 few would be motivated to sell them"

 

Good article.   Heh, I recall reading issues of Shotgun News in the mid to late 1990's and thinking "I can't afford those" on the machinegun ads.  Now I wish I'd gotten some of those 'outrageously' priced guns back then.   Unless we have more amnesty opportunities given by ATF, it's unlikely that the pool of available transferables will ever get meaningfully larger again.  And every time a transferable is irreparably damaged, destroyed, stolen, etc, that reduces the number left . . . and the prices will continue to rise.   As prices rise enough, sure, sales will probably slow down, but it doesn't take all that many buyers to keep a limited market rising.

[Bill in Bama]

My biggest regret is not buying a dozen or so HK sears back in the early 90's when they sold for $6-700.  I seem to conveniently forget that $7-8000 was more money than I could ever afford with two kids, a mortgage, and a car payment.  My Mother used to tell me that I had a "champagne appetite on a beer budget."  She was (and still is) right. But those early ads in Frank's article make it seem like were we prescient enough way back when that we could have scooped up some now valuable guns for peanuts. A $40 Lewis or $50 Grease gun in 1960 seems cheap, but I was 12 years old and my Father made probably $50/week back then.  Perspective counts.

However, I do have a few MG's that I bought many years ago and if I ignore inflation I can make a killing if I sell them.

[Chef]

A $50 Grease gun being equal to a weeks pay in 1960.
I pull down $500 a week now and if Grease gun dewats (or Lewis guns) were $500 today, the price of one equaling a weeks pay wouldn't deter me in the slightest from geetting as many as I could.
I'd ride a bike to work and eat ramen noodles if I had to just to be able to grab a couple a month.

I think there was just an overall lack of interest in MGs and dewats or practically any surplus military firearms in general back then.
Guns were more commonplace in everyday life. Ads for them in non-gun magazines, firearms counters in Sears and JcPenny's.
And there was no real stigma surrounding the ownership of firearms back then.
Kids who had an acute interest in WW2 history back then could ask for one of those dewats for Xmas, or mow lawns all summer and save up enough to buy one. And many did!
But when there's no possibility of "missing out" on having one, when there was no talk about bans or a loss of supply, there just wasn't any real demand for them like there is today.

If you took another regularly available item and applied the same current stigma and lack of supply to it, something commonly available today, like bicycles, and then ban any new manufacture and importation of them, I bet you'd see an artificial demand pop up rapidly and prices would climb to match the demand.
Anyone who ever had a thought about owning a bicycle would want to get one before the prices grew out of sight, or worry that they couldn't find the model they wanted. And bicycle collectors would start grabbing up all the rare models, speculating on their increasing value.

[Don.]

On 4/17/2025 at 5:59 PM, gamebit21 said:

    Hello fellow comrades!! Awe…. You all are discussing the inevitable points of capitalism and consumerism…. You have to keep  capitalising on making more capital…. You eventually are consumed by consumerism…. 
    At the end of the day, you can be a shooter of machine guns or in investor of machine guns…. You can not be both…. Eventually one person will extinguish the other….  Even though capitalism is the best system, it is still a flawed system because it involves people who are all imperfect and flawed…. Just remember one thing…. GREEDY WESTERNS!! THEY ALWAYS WANT MORE MONEY!!

Yeah?  So.  Better than being a commie.

[Frank I]

On 4/18/2025 at 8:32 AM, reichstall said:

As I am new to this only had mine for 2 years. I like to look but the prices have gone sky high, and I am happy folks can afford them. As for me I guess I'm happy with what I have there is a lot more things I buy with 50000 than a gun.

Prices have been escalating since the 1986 ban on transferables, but the big jump was when the internet came online.

There are a lot more things you can buy, BUT will they appreciate in value and at the same time be fun to own?

cars, RVs, boats, motorcycles are all fun, but depreciation starts on day 1.

I do realize that the significant other has a lot to say about big-ticket purchases. I have a friend who really wanted a Colt M16A1 I was selling for $1500.00 back in 1993, his wife said NO WAY she wanted a new couch that is now in a landfill somewhere, the M16's value well... 

Back in 1993 it took me a while to sell that M16A1 for $1500.00.  I cannot remember a single thing that I bought with the $1500.00.

BTW I bought the M16A1 in 1984 for $475.00 + the $200 tax

https://smallarmsreview.com/the-good-old-days-2/ 

Edited April 30, 2025 by Frank I

[Don.]

On 4/30/2025 at 3:41 PM, Frank I said:

Prices have been escalating since the 1986 ban on transferables, but the big jump was when the internet came online.

There are a lot more things you can buy, BUT will they appreciate in value and at the same time be fun to own?

cars, RVs, boats, motorcycles are all fun, but depreciation starts on day 1.

I do realize that the significant other has a lot to say about big-ticket purchases. I have a friend who really wanted a Colt M16A1 I was selling for $1500.00 back in 1993, his wife said NO WAY she wanted a new couch that is now in a landfill somewhere, the M16's value well... 

Back in 1993 it took me a while to sell that M16A1 for $1500.00.  I cannot remember a single thing that I bought with the $1500.00.

BTW I bought the M16A1 in 1984 for $475.00 + the $200 tax

https://smallarmsreview.com/the-good-old-days-2/ 

I had a great year a few years ago from my commissions.   The wife was wanting me to upgrade in Jeep from my ’93 Wrangler that’s 100% due to my abilities.  I declined and said I’d rather have an M16 for the same price.  She said no right away.

 I made my argument with a bet regarding the values of my prospective purchase and the newish Jeep she has.  I proposed a wager of $5K that when we sell/trade her Jeep that it would be worth significantly less than what we paid compared to the ‘16’s value when it gets sold in the future.  It took about five seconds for her to say yes.

She knows what I paid for previously purchased transferables and I keep her informed on the values when we review the IRAs, etc.  She knows they’re a small part of our portfolio and I don’t expect to be buried with them.

[Chef]

19 hours ago, Don. said:

I had a great year a few years ago from my commissions.   The wife was wanting me to upgrade in Jeep from my ’93 Wrangler that’s 100% due to my abilities.  I declined and said I’d rather have an M16 for the same price.  She said no right away.

 I made my argument with a bet regarding the values of my prospective purchase and the newish Jeep she has.  I proposed a wager of $5K that when we sell/trade her Jeep that it would be worth significantly less than what we paid compared to the ‘16’s value when it gets sold in the future.  It took about five seconds for her to say yes.

She knows what I paid for previously purchased transferables and I keep her informed on the values when we review the IRAs, etc.  She knows they’re a small part of our portfolio and I don’t expect to be buried with them.

I think you missed the point.

It sounds like your wife was willing to allocate the money for a new car because she is embarrassed for you to be seen driving around in an old 1993 Jeep.
If you spent that money on the new Jeep, her status would improve.
If you spent that money on a M16, not only does that not improve her status, it's most likely an embarrassment that she prefers to keep secret.

[Don.]

On 5/3/2025 at 1:10 AM, Chef said:

I think you missed the point.

It sounds like your wife was willing to allocate the money for a new car because she is embarrassed for you to be seen driving around in an old 1993 Jeep.
If you spent that money on the new Jeep, her status would improve.
If you spent that money on a M16, not only does that not improve her status, it's most likely an embarrassment that she prefers to keep secret.

Speak for your own situation, pal.  Future Don and wife are on the same page and we’ll be laughing all the way to the bank.  I’ll still have my Jeep and still not care about what others think of my situation.

[M38A1-Josh]

I too drive older vehicles to buy more guns lol. My daily driver is a 2005, then I have a 1997 and 1966 vehicles as backups.

[3171scott]

On 4/20/2025 at 5:24 PM, Frank I said:

A few years ago, I did an article for SAR magazine about "The Good Old Days" of machine gun buying. 

I think you will find it both interesting and amusing.

https://smallarmsreview.com/the-good-old-days-2/ 

"If M16s were still $500.00 few would be motivated to sell them"

 

Wow that was a great article! What issue was that? I want to try and find a copy. Do you have any other article like this published?

Thanks Scott

[3171scott]

Stupid me, I see that it is Vol 21 in 2017. But if you have any other links to similar articles it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks Scott

[Frank I]

Old article, but still relevant...

There are hundreds of articles on that site, just type a topic in the search block.

 

[Double Dubs]

Four Boxes Diner had an interesting legal video the other day.  Gist was while there are around 700K registered machine guns, only around 176K are fully transferable.  The rest are in manufacturing inventories, LE, post samples, etc.  While slumps may come and go, the long-term trend will be upward. Supply and demand.  Supply slowly drying up with theft, fire, loss, catastrophic failure, lack of parts, ammo, proper paperwork for inheritance, etc.  Demand will rise with population, true rich wanting investment toys. 

An amnesty, repeal, invalidation of the Hughes amendment, or NFA would, of course, greatly change all this.  If no tax on suppressors and SBR's, why a registration component?  No longer a tax issue so GOA and others gearing up for challenge.    May lead to wider challenge, ruling.  Uncertainty in NFA market leads to slower, lower sales.  However, these issues take years to play out.  FOMO or economic prosperity may kick back in and revive things.  

 

 

[tal35]

I think the combination of FRT's  money being tight, MG somewhat overpriced ... they all are a factor. I have a sear for sale for under 50k and its not going anywhere, not even an offer right now. Whats a realistic SELLING price on a qualified or fleming sear right now?

[JoshNC]

On 8/1/2025 at 12:33 AM, tal35 said:

I think the combination of FRT's  money being tight, MG somewhat overpriced ... they all are a factor. I have a sear for sale for under 50k and its not going anywhere, not even an offer right now. Whats a realistic SELLING price on a qualified or fleming sear right now?

I’m surprised your sear hasn’t sold. You’re at fair market value. 

[tal35]

I feel I am definitely fair on the price, its in exc. shape . It may be the dealers want to make more profit on it 

[jbntex]

On 7/31/2025 at 11:33 PM, tal35 said:

I think the combination of FRT's  money being tight, MG somewhat overpriced ... they all are a factor. I have a sear for sale for under 50k and its not going anywhere, not even an offer right now. Whats a realistic SELLING price on a qualified or fleming sear right now?

I don't disagree in terms of the economy is sluggish, interest rates are still high, FRTs are having some impact, and gun control not on anybody's mind right now so the pressure to buy and sell isn't huge.

In the case of your specific sear sale the other challenge is the headwinds that few folks today want to wait for months for paper Form 4 anymore with dealer based inventory eForms being approved in a matter of days.

The best I can tell regular dealers appear to be selling HK sears /packs for about ~$45K where the final price is actually known. (Not a sale where it was listed at $50K and SPF but the seller actually took less but didnt disclose the final selling price)

Sienna sold a couple on GB in the past couple months.  Fleming Sear for $45K (GB 1108323533) and S&H Sear with an HK94 host for $48K (GB 1102783789). 

Medea sold a Group Pack for $40K (GB 1114031902)

TPI sold a CRay pack with Host for $47K (GB 1114031902)

DLO pack for $48K (GB 1102218525)  <- These usually run a good $5K premium to sears.

As an individual transferring on a paper Form 4 you are not going to get the same price as a dealer who can eForm4 it to the buyer in a matter of days or eForm3 it to another dealer who can then eForm4 it to the buyer in a matter of weeks.

I would guess your $45K asking price is a couple thousand too high in todays market conditions.

If I were you I would drop the price $500 every week or two until it sells.  My best guess is you will end up somewhere closer $40K in todays market (vs. $45K) for a Qualified HK Sear in a SEF pack as an non-FFL/SOT seller as most buyers are going to want a ~10% discount from dealer prices in exchange for the Paper Form 4 wait and the perceived risk of sending money to a non-dealer.

Good luck with your sale and I hope you get the $45K you are asking.

[tal35]

Considering the price I have listed, it is the cheapest on the market, there was a HTA for a bit less, but you get what you pay for if you are in the know on manuf. All conversions arent the same in My honest opinion. As to the paperwork, the ave. time on a paper form 4 is 40 ish days, and it is pretty close to that based on a recent transfer on paper., but considering making $5k ish on a purchase for waiting 1-2 month's isnt a bad way to go to make even $2-5k for a couple month's investment if you look at it from that way. Not too many places to make $2-5k for a couple month's investment. If you look at the base price of the sear, which I believe was $44kish That is a fair base price. Also, what was 2 to 3 month's ago is a LONG time in the semi volatile market right now if you look at what was selling in general vs now. I appreciate your thoughts and there is some merit in it all. Even the cost of the HK 94 base gun is not bad, vollmer did not put all the bells and whistles on their conversions, no flapper mag release, sear marking on the gun, originally not a SBR, I believe to save a tax, but none the less, still a german gun without denial features. I agree, a DLO box conversion should bring a bit of a premium in my eyes, but I also believe that Fleming and Qualified are somewhat of a gold standard, and S&H even though are very good, some consider them a bit less quality due to the fact they were investment cast, although I think they are VG. HTA  or Ciener etc I would rate a less desirable unit. 4 position packs are ok, but anyone with MP5 experiance knows that you can control it the same way with your finger, and the 4 position packs add $2-4k for convenience mainly, although some people like the coolness factor.

[Don.]

Welcome to Trump slump II.  Remember where the prices were pre-covid and potato head?  Guess where they’re going again?

Nothing to do with FRTs.  Everything to do with the volatile nature of the market that regularly dips.  You’re better off storing (or using) it if you don’t need the money for an emergency.  Granted, if you paid $500 for it, you’re only technically losing money selling it for less than $10K or thereabouts.

[JECIII]

I don't know if habe couple lightning links and I love them but a super safe is pretty close to.fa. this gen 12 with suppressornis abut 45k with a link and about 5k with a. Custom super safety.  Watch the below and you tell me.  This is a supersafe.12ga.  Runs like you wouldn't believe although needs a trip.  Few.of my.linkncustomers are setting up supersafes.amd putting the link in the safe.

 

 

[Don.]

On 8/12/2025 at 7:46 PM, JECIII said:

I don't know if habe couple lightning links and I love them but a super safe is pretty close to.fa. this gen 12 with suppressornis abut 45k with a link and about 5k with a. Custom super safety.  Watch the below and you tell me.  This is a supersafe.12ga.  Runs like you wouldn't believe although needs a trip.  Few.of my.linkncustomers are setting up supersafes.amd putting the link in the safe.

I think I get what you’re saying?  I’ve done several SS AKs and ARs.  My transferables have been in storage ever since.

[JECIII]

Yep and.mpre amd more ss are coming lot for doffr3nt platforms. JKAL were.worming on a scorpion 32acp and lots others are working on guns for ss.  I need to get one tonwork for a hk21.  Or something like a 1919 that sort of thing