imacer Posted September 30 Report Share Posted September 30 Hi Everyone, I wanted to make a post to try and put a pulse on the Transferable MG market. As I am in the current phase of saving up for my first, I have been glued to watching the auction house, Gun Broker, and larger NFA websites, in addition to the forum. By no means is this 100% scientific, and mainly anecdotal with what information on sales I am able to gather. In addition to my opinions and assumptions. I welcome any disagreements below, but this is more of a snapshot of most entry level guns. General State of the Market: Prices for most guns have leveled off from their highs in 2022-2023, however most are trying to hold steady and most sellers are not willing to lower their prices outside of those guns going to the auction houses. It also seems to me like other collecting hobbies that many collectors brought additional guns on speculation of higher prices continuing to rise. But are now starting to let go of more common and lower end models, while trying to stabilize the increased prices as the “new” norm. Individual Gun Prices and Comments *Pricing will be for normal Fully Transferable guns without special provenances* Pricing will be from GunBroker (Past 30 Days), Morphy’s (Sept 10-12 auction), Rock Island (Aug 23-25th auction) with buyer’s premium added. Also all prices will not consider sales taxes or NFA stamp costs. Also I would have liked to add Poulin’s numbers to this however their past catalogs are not available on their site. Reising M50: $7,000-10,000 GunBroker: 6 Sold: $7,525, $7,925, $8,901, $9,500, $10,026 Auctions Houses Morphy’s 3 Sold: $9,000, $9,600, $12,000 Rock Island 2 Sold: $11,163, $11,750 Takeaways: Price ceiling for the Reising M50 is $9,500. Several guns have been listed over the past couple months that did not sell for prices above $9500. Most other guns in various lesser conditions can bring anywhere between $7,000-$8,000. MAC Family $8,000-$15,000 MAC gun prices have a wide range, but are also the most plentiful amount of guns that brought the market. General Tendencies: Higher priced guns usually are mint unfired guns or guns that come with a bunch of Lage Upper and Magazines. Lower end guns are usually M-10’s in .45, and are a mix of poor condition Power Spring guns or later MAC’s (Jersey & Texas Models). M11 Guns in 9mm still command the top prices of the family, with .380 Cal guns that follow. MAC 10: $8,000-$11,000 GunBroker: 5 Sold: $9,631, 10,000, $10,025, $10,075, $11,025 Auctions Houses Morphy’s 3 Sold: $8,400, $10,200, $10,455 Rock Island None in Last Auction Takeaways: Price Ceiling for plain MAC 10’s are $11,500 if priced higher it will sit unsold. If you are trying to sell your MAC with Lage uppers and Mags, it might be better to separate than trying to sell as a lot, as no lots have sold for their $13,000-$15,000 price points. MAC 11 GunBroker 3 Sold: $ 10,378, $10,550 & $12,025 Auctions Houses Morphy’s 1 Sold: $10,200 Rock Island None in Last Auction Takeaways: Price Ceiling for plain MAC 11’s are $12,000 if priced higher it will sit unsold. MAC 11 .380 GunBroker 2 Sold: $9,863, $12,000 Auctions Houses Morphy’s None in Last Auction Rock Island None in Last Auction Takeaways: Price Ceiling for plain MAC 11’s in .380 are $10,000 if priced higher it will sit, Suitcase Models will go for more like the $12,000 Gunbroker example. UZI Receiver/Sear Guns GunBroker 2 Sold: $18,025 & $20,000 Auctions Houses Morphy’s 2 Sold: $17,220, $19,680 Rock Island 1 Sold: $16,450 Takeaways: Price Ceiling for Uzi Receiver/Sear Guns are $18,000 if priced higher it will sit UZI Bolt Guns GunBroker None in Past 30 Days Auctions Houses Morphy’s None in Last Auction Rock Island 1 Sold: $16,450 Takeaways: Price Ceiling for Uzi Bolt Guns are $16,500 if priced higher it will sit. STEN GunBroker None in Past 30 Days Auctions Houses Morphy’s 1 Sale: $9,840 Rock Island None in Last Auction Takeaways: Price Ceiling for Sten Guns are $10,000 if priced higher it will sit. Sterling GunBroker Sold: None in Past 30 Days Auctions Houses Morphy’s 1 Sold: $22,800 *Custom Integrally Suppressed Gun Rock Island 1 Sold; $26,438 Takeaways: Price Ceiling for Sterlings are $15,000 if priced higher it will sit. Auction house examples were either custom or collector grade non-shooter conditions. Spitfire GunBroker Sold: None in Past 30 Days Auctions Houses Morphy’s 1 Sale: $7,995 Rock Island None in Last Auction Takeaways: Price Ceiling for Spitfires are $8,000 if priced higher it will sit. While none have sold on GunBroker in the past 30 days, Several sold in the past 3 months for around $6000-$7500. Ruger AC556 GunBroker 1 Sold: $17,025 Auctions Houses Morphy’s None in Last Auction Rock Island None in Last Auction Takeaways: Price Ceiling for Ruger AC556 are $14,000 if priced higher it will sit. While none have sold on GunBroker in the past 30 days, Several have popped up on the STG forum for around $14,000-16,000 and have not been sold. M2 Carbines GunBroker Sold: None in Past 30 Days Auctions Houses Morphy’s 1 Sold: $15,990 Rock Island 1 Sold: $22,325 Takeaways: Price Ceiling for M2 are $10,000 if priced higher it will sit. While none have sold on GunBroker in the past 30 days, Several conversion models have not sold at $11,000 & $12,000. Auctions listings were for Military production converted guns in premium condition. MK 760 GunBroker 1 Sold: $12,995 Auctions Houses Morphy’s None in Last Auction Rock Island None in Last Auction Takeaways: Price Ceiling for MK 760 are $11,500 if priced higher it will sit. Smith & Wesson 76 GunBroker Sold: None in Past 30 Days Auctions Houses Morphy’s 2 Sold: $16,800, $26,400 Rock Island 1 Sold: $14,100 Takeaways: Price Ceiling for Smith and Wesson 76 are $15,000 if priced higher it will sit; unless it is a collector’s grade piece. Stemple's GunBroker 1` Sold: $16,500 Auctions Houses Morphy’s 1 Sold: $14,400 Rock Island None in Last Auction Takeaways: Price Ceiling for Stemples are $13,000 if priced higher it will sit. This for the generic 76/45, price vary for the limited run models, like the ones above. You can still buy one directly from Stemple for $17,300 Ingram M6 GunBroker Auctions Houses Morphy’s None in Last Auction Rock Island 1 Sold: $12,925 Takeaways: Price Ceiling for Ingram M6 are $13,000 if priced higher it will sit. Between the Rock Island Result, plus there was one that sold on the forum for $12,000 as well. Thompson GunBroker 1 Sold: $18,025, $23,995, $26,525 Auctions Houses Morphy’s 4 Sold: $25,200, $26,400, $31,980, $34,440 Rock Island 2 Sold: $21,150, $29,375, 35,250 Takeaways: Price Ceiling for Thompsons are $21,000 if priced higher it will sit. That is price for shooter grade guns, hirer prices are for the more collectors pieces, and those with rarer manufacturers and sub-models. MP 40 GunBroker 1 Sold: 19,000 Auctions Houses Morphy’s 4 Sold: $17,220, $18,450, $18,450, $26,400 Rock Island 2 Sold: $23,500, $29,375 Takeaways: Price Ceiling for MP-40’s are $19,000 if priced higher it will sit. These prices are for shooters, Collectible all original war capture pieces are on the higher end $25-30,000. M16 GunBroker 1 Sold: $34,995 Auctions Houses Morphy’s 4 Sold: $26,400, 29,520, $37,200, $38,400 Rock Island 1 Sold: $44,063 Takeaways: Price Ceiling for M16’s are $26,000 if priced higher it will sit. This is for Converted guns, and most non-Colt Mfg guns. All Original Colt M16’s especially those in collector condition bring $35,000+. (Gunbroker example was a Colt gun) 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumpy Posted September 30 Report Share Posted September 30 Respectfully what is the purpose of this ? Like just data you wanted to share? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imacer Posted September 30 Author Report Share Posted September 30 Yes, I just wanted share for the most part, as well as wanting to document pricing. I am just looking to see if there is general concenus in on pricing, among members on here. It seems like with other high end collectibles: Such as Cars, Watches, High End Burbons, etc. there plenty of people that track prices and break down what the "street price". However there is not many resources for Transferable MG's 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Got Uzi Posted September 30 Report Share Posted September 30 Your Sterling prices as well as your Uzi bolt prices are bogus. I too question what the purpose of your post is? I get everyone needs a hobby but to say this is the status of the market is not all inclusive. Trying to rationalize the Thompson and HK market would be even more entertaining to say the least following your "data points" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinball-1 Posted September 30 Report Share Posted September 30 Price guides already exist (http://machinegunpriceguide.com/html/price_guides.html) To many variables on a lot of what you posted, for it to be accurate. Two quick examples; Stens - are they tube guns or originals? Which model Sten? Reising M50 - how many and what kind of mags included? An original 20rnd sells for $300+ a pop nowadays, and included mags can drastically alter the sale price. I do agree, that typical collector items (guitars, watches, cars, etc) have been sitting and dropping in price a bit for the last 6 months. However, best time to buy a machine gun is today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumpy Posted September 30 Report Share Posted September 30 49 minutes ago, Got Uzi said: Your Sterling prices as well as your Uzi bolt prices are bogus. I too question what the purpose of your post is? I get everyone needs a hobby but to say this is the status of the market is not all inclusive. Trying to rationalize the Thompson and HK market would be even more entertaining to say the least following your "data points" I agree with you 100% on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imacer Posted September 30 Author Report Share Posted September 30 I know (http://machinegunpriceguide.com/html/price_guides.html) Exist. I also have a very high level of respect for who runs the site. My goal was trying to grab the pluse of the market in a specfic month (Aug/Sept) where there were auctions by 2 (Would've been 3 if I could have grabbed Poulin's) of the biggest houses, plus Gunbroker. Machine Gun Price Guide appears to pull it's info quaterly which is tough. For example according to MG Price Guide's last update: from March 2023-2024 a Mac 10 (No Specification of Caliber or MFG) Sold for between $12,500-13,000. But from pulling the prices just now in Septemeber most MAC 10's are auctally selling for $8500-$10,500. That difference of $3,000-$5,000 in sold prices are very wide gap. Plus Machine Gun Price Guide don't exactly state what auctions or websites their price points come from. Lastly, I realized I cover over too many models and everyone is right there are so many factors that play into the pricing of a comparable. The comments about Sten and Uzi's are well taken those are tricker models to gauge than others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Side Arm Sams Posted September 30 Report Share Posted September 30 IMO. Someone has way too much time on their hands. Put that time to better use, like over-time. Works for me! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
challenger70rt Posted October 1 Report Share Posted October 1 I’m with some of the others here. I like following this stuff too, but to say things like “x-y-z is the ceiling price, guns will sit if priced beyond blah” is a little out there when you have 2-5 data points. What’s the provenance of the gun? Condition? C&R status? How long ago did the seller buy? What accessories are included in the sale? How bad did the seller want to sell? How bad did the buyer want to buy? Did they have to pay sales tax or credit card fees? There are sooooo many variables that can dramatically affect price that this seems a bit out there. Not to mention a lot of first timers buy from some of the big dealer and those sales are oft significantly higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in VA Posted October 1 Report Share Posted October 1 The real “state of the NFA transferrable market” is that it’s a seller’s market. It’s as simple as that. There are a fairly limited number of transferrables and prices have steadily increased since May of 1986, to the point that entry level machine guns are now in the $10k range. An early poster correctly stated that the time to buy a machine gun is today. Each day that you, the price will increase. Others have also pointed out that your exercise overlooks far too many variables. Decide what you want, do your research on the gun and the seller, and commit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in Bama Posted October 2 Report Share Posted October 2 Yes, the time to buy is today. And, you never pay too much, you just might buy too soon. (Within reason). I have sold almost all my MG's at a profit, disallowing for inflation anyway. I like to tell people that you should buy what you want without any expectation of future worth, and I still say this. But in reality, the CIII market has done as well as, if not better, than the stock market and it's much more fun to own guns than stocks. BAck in the day when one held actual stock certificates I would tell potential buyers that you can at least take the guns out and play with them, being much more fun than looking through your stock certificates! Still true. As an SOT I have to look at what I might be able to sell a gun for in the future, but that still isn't my only reason for buying. Enjoy the ability to shoot them, to take them apart and marvel at the ingenuity of each one, and its workmanship (or lack thereof), and take time to learn the history of the guns, that all is a part of my enjoyment in owning MG's. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M38A1-Josh Posted October 2 Report Share Posted October 2 Well I appreciate the effort put into this. I like the data. I think the conclusions are debatable, as others have already emphasized. You could easily just present the data with no conclusions. MG price guide does exist but more data points are fine by me. I just wish you did more. I'm more interested in the belt fed pricing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhouston8 Posted October 2 Report Share Posted October 2 imacer...thank you for compiling that. I don't know why anyone would chew your arse about doing so ...unless they had unstated motives. Like M38 Josh says ^ above....I'll assume the data is correct but I'm wary of some of your conclusions ( Sterling for example). I disagree with Bama Bill " But in reality, the CIII market has done as well as, if not better, than the stock market" - Of course it depends on the chosen start and end times but generally speaking this has not held true for the SP500 v the entire transf. mg market over the last 10 yrs. If one goes back to the late 80's and 90's...bc that's when most of the early gains in mg prices were made ( perhaps same in SP500 though!) . Generally speaking the later start point one chooses for mg prices the less impressive the mg price gain is relative to SP500. Of course what's not being mentioned is the vol baby...volatility . mg prices have much less vol, SP500 much more- esp on the downside. MGs rarely lose much if any value over any multi yr time frame - which is not true of SP500. You can find numerous multi year price declines. MGs do get into flat prices but rarely actually drop. The sellers don't drop the prices, they just hold them it seems. I back calculated a couple of my oldest mg purchases a few yrs ago and came up with a 6% annualized appreciation rate. One of the better gains was for a MP5k + sear bought in 1999/2000 for $7,200 if I recall. You can work out the rate of return up to present day....and choose your current day price ( I'd say $45k right now sells ). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnsonlmg41 Posted October 3 Report Share Posted October 3 (edited) If you look at total stock market returns, you'll find MG's actually do very well post 86' sort of like the stock market post 87 . If you are going to single out small, highly overvalued specific indexes like S&P500 that may be different? Course unlike GM stock and others, MG owners will never get gov. bailouts....so there's that which artificially props up most of the stock markets. Then there's the whole fakeness of stocks. If they don't like you buying gamestop, they freeze your money because all of the markets/stocks are actually owned/run by private companies with little or no oversight and they can cut you off at a split seconds notice. Just small fish, big fish get fed and have different trading rules and trade 24/7 while you do not, the little guys are baitfish. Ask yourself, do you get first round on IPOs or would you be 3rd or 4th tier later in the day? Here's overall Nasdaq charts https://www.macrotrends.net/1320/nasdaq-historical-chart None of this covers fee's, taxes, etc. which deduct substantially from your stock investment. After a 30 minute discussion with a guy who worked the floor for 15 years, I doubt I will ever buy any stocks again? I've been sticking to tangible assets for quite a few years now, and that includes MG's among other things. The "fun factor" is impossible to put number on....but it's really high IMO Edited October 3 by johnsonlmg41 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imacer Posted October 3 Author Report Share Posted October 3 On 10/1/2024 at 1:32 PM, Bill in VA said: The real “state of the NFA transferrable market” is that it’s a seller’s market. It’s as simple as that. There are a fairly limited number of transferrables and prices have steadily increased since May of 1986, to the point that entry level machine guns are now in the $10k range. An early poster correctly stated that the time to buy a machine gun is today. Each day that you, the price will increase. Others have also pointed out that your exercise overlooks far too many variables. Decide what you want, do your research on the gun and the seller, and commit. Generally speaking, Yes one can look charts over time and see that the prices have gone up since May of 1986. However I think it tough to say that when you break it down by model. Again I think the MAC family of guns is important becasue they are most plentiful and most transacted. According to Machinegunpriceguide if you brought a MAC 10 in 2010 you paid around $4500-5000 for gun on average, that same amount of money today is $6500-7250.00 (44% percent inflation rate cumulatively). So in a sense the prices of a MAC has only really gone up $2500-$3000 on a adjusted for inflation valuation (Assuming a MAC sells for $10,000). I also find it hard to say that anything asset, can only go up in price. There is nothing that is all emcompasing where every single item in a catagory will always go up in value. Different models of Cars, Watches, Fine Wine, Art, Baseball Cards, Real Estate all fluxate with the demand from the market. I think we can even see this with Belt Fed heavy guns, they are not as popular with many so their prices have not had the same boost as HK' and M16's. My main point is I believe there has been a run up in prices of certain (normal, non specaility) guns just in the last 2-3 years, that is just inflation, or demand from the market. It can't also be a turly seller's market as there are plenty of guns that listed for sale on the fourm, gun broker and other larger site's like Ruben's or OTB firearms that have a dozen of plain MAC 10's or 11's with 1 Magazine for $14,000 & $15,000 and those guns have sat unsold for months. Lastly just as general note: to the several users that are puzzled or laughed why anyone would do detailed market research on an "investment" or "asset" that costs $10,000-$50,000 baffles me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imacer Posted October 3 Author Report Share Posted October 3 12 hours ago, M38A1-Josh said: Well I appreciate the effort put into this. I like the data. I think the conclusions are debatable, as others have already emphasized. You could easily just present the data with no conclusions. MG price guide does exist but more data points are fine by me. I just wish you did more. I'm more interested in the belt fed pricing. Thanks Josh, I agree maybe some of my conclsuions are not as sound, due to the small pool data that was used. I welcome anyone to double check my data, I have clearly stated at the top of the post which specific auction & date of sale each sold MG is from. I am not trying to knock MG Price Guide but their lack of transparent data points, is slighty troubling, espcially since we are talking about only a handful of guns selling over a given month. As for the Belt guns, I wish I had the time to dive deeper. I think there are bargins to be had in terms of raity and collectibity or registered guns. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imacer Posted October 3 Author Report Share Posted October 3 7 hours ago, rhouston8 said: MGs do get into flat prices but rarely actually drop. The sellers don't drop the prices, they just hold them it seems. I think this statement nails it, it is also very interesting. It's almost like real estate in a down market. Those that can hold will hold, but those forced to sell through Death, Divorce, or Downsizing (lifestyle change) are ones truly defining the market price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Got Uzi Posted October 3 Report Share Posted October 3 (edited) Your using auctions as data points and forget there is one critical point with auctions-people make snap decisions and let emotion take over common sense. You’ll see guns sell at auction they would NEVER bring that on the open market. That is were part of your numbers are skewed. The problem with trying to publish some sort of “price guide” or “mg blue book” if you will, is that the market is too fluid. What was true a month prior is not working the next. Example- Fleming or Qualified HK sear prices were $40k-$42.5k and all of a sudden the market was flooded with them. Now they are sitting at $45k-$50k and not moving…..why-people saw the market on the upswing and good greedy then flooded the market. “If someone will pay that, then I can get more for mine” once that happens for a few weeks/months, the market becomes stagnant and rather than lowering prices to sell, people sit on them due to pride or whatnot. Dealers will lower prices because they don’t want to be married to stuff, business is about moving inventory, not sitting on it. This is where your data points are off. Another data point that is off is you aren’t taking into account the auction house commission or the 1099 taxes that the seller will have to pay. You need to take that into account as well which you clearly did not. Edited October 3 by Got Uzi Typo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhouston8 Posted October 3 Report Share Posted October 3 considering mgs as an investment you also have this potential Black Swan event always hanging over your head...that new regs/laws pass that further crimp the market- either by banning them or limiting free markets within them. And before you say " Never Happen !!!! 1934 !!!!" - yeah, whatever. Consider that many of the largest wealthiest pools of potential buyers have steadily excluded from the mg market....this would include the likes of wealthy CA citizens for example and a bunch of states in the NE as well. By the time its all over it'll be just a bunch of broke ass rednecks in the deep South* owning and buying them !!!! *TM- this is me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imacer Posted October 3 Author Report Share Posted October 3 (edited) 1 hour ago, Got Uzi said: Your using auctions as data points and forget there is one critical point with auctions-people make snap decisions and let emotion take over common sense. You’ll see guns sell at auction they would NEVER bring that on the open market. That is were part of your numbers are skewed. I agree with this, mostly espically with the more collectible and Non-Shooter Grade, Non Entry level guns. The auction provides hype and people are already in the mood to spend money. However there are guns that transact at auction like MAC Family guns that sometime sell for less than they do in shops, the fourm, or even GunBroker. 1 hour ago, Got Uzi said: The problem with trying to publish some sort of “price guide” or “mg blue book” if you will, is that the market is too fluid. What was true a month prior is not working the next. Example- Fleming or Qualified HK sear prices were $40k-$42.5k and all of a sudden the market was flooded with them. Now they are sitting at $45k-$50k and not moving…..why-people saw the market on the upswing and good greedy then flooded the market. “If someone will pay that, then I can get more for mine” once that happens for a few weeks/months, the market becomes stagnant and rather than lowering prices to sell, people sit on them due to pride or whatnot. Dealers will lower prices because they don’t want to be married to stuff, business is about moving inventory, not sitting on it. This is where your data points are off. Well that is exactly the point I am trying to make, this happened over the last 2-3 years and now we are seeing on certain models that people who do need the money or that want to hold something different begin to back down on their prices. However some of larger private dealers are the worse offeneders of trying to slowly speculate the market, only becasue there are so few players in the space. 1 hour ago, Got Uzi said: Another data point that is off is you aren’t taking into account the auction house commission or the 1099 taxes that the seller will have to pay. You need to take that into account as well which you clearly did not. I really didn't take this into the consideration, as there is commission the seller would have to pay for any of the auction houses, or Gun Broker I used in my post. But really unless you sell it yourself, or on places like the fourm. You will have to pay commission even if it is with your local dealer. As for taxes, again I assumed that was something that would be appiled in all cases of the examples I used above. While I am not an tax adviser, I don't advise not paying Uncle Sam espically with sale of something so heavily regulated. But that is the indivdual's own choice to make. Edited October 3 by imacer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imacer Posted October 3 Author Report Share Posted October 3 (edited) 49 minutes ago, rhouston8 said: considering mgs as an investment you also have this potential Black Swan event always hanging over your head...that new regs/laws pass that further crimp the market- either by banning them or limiting free markets within them. And before you say " Never Happen !!!! 1934 !!!!" - yeah, whatever. Well again, if you are looking at this as an investment you don't just my MG's for your retirement. Plus somewhere you would calculate this risk, if you completely lost this, or got next to nothing for compesation. Which again goes back to point that the price when you buy is important to pay attention to. 49 minutes ago, rhouston8 said: Consider that many of the largest wealthiest pools of potential buyers have steadily excluded from the mg market....this would include the likes of wealthy CA citizens for example and a bunch of states in the NE as well. By the time its all over it'll be just a bunch of broke ass rednecks in the deep South* owning and buying them !!!! Its funny you bring that up beacuse I did an analysis on that as well. (that is below) Some of the most populus and wealty states are precluded out of this market.(17 States + 5 Territories) I know when I lived in Illinois really most NFA item ownership was day dream, and it only go worse since I left the state a couple years ago. NFA MG Illegal States & Territories Arkansas any cartridges above .30 or 7.63mm California Connecticut If brought before 2014, Legal Delaware District of Columbia Hawaii Illinois Iowa Massachusetts Licence Required *Basically Outlawed* Minnesota C&R Only New Jersey Licence Required *Basically Outlawed* New York Rhode Island Virginia* MG Need to Be Registered Washington Need to be Registered Before 1994 Wisconsin No Pistol Caliber MG's American Samoa Guam Northern Mariana Islands Puerto Rico U.S. Virgin Islands Edited October 3 by imacer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in Bama Posted October 3 Report Share Posted October 3 (edited) On 10/2/2024 at 3:25 PM, rhouston8 said: imacer...thank you for compiling that. I don't know why anyone would chew your arse about doing so ...unless they had unstated motives. Like M38 Josh says ^ above....I'll assume the data is correct but I'm wary of some of your conclusions ( Sterling for example). I disagree with Bama Bill " But in reality, the CIII market has done as well as, if not better, than the stock market" - Of course it depends on the chosen start and end times but generally speaking this has not held true for the SP500 v the entire transf. mg market over the last 10 yrs. If one goes back to the late 80's and 90's...bc that's when most of the early gains in mg prices were made ( perhaps same in SP500 though!) . Generally speaking the later start point one chooses for mg prices the less impressive the mg price gain is relative to SP500. Of course what's not being mentioned is the vol baby...volatility . mg prices have much less vol, SP500 much more- esp on the downside. MGs rarely lose much if any value over any multi yr time frame - which is not true of SP500. You can find numerous multi year price declines. MGs do get into flat prices but rarely actually drop. The sellers don't drop the prices, they just hold them it seems. I back calculated a couple of my oldest mg purchases a few yrs ago and came up with a 6% annualized appreciation rate. One of the better gains was for a MP5k + sear bought in 1999/2000 for $7,200 if I recall. You can work out the rate of return up to present day....and choose your current day price ( I'd say $45k right now sells ). You may be correct about appreciation of SP500, BUT as you state it often goes down and many lose $$$ when that happens. I recall in early 90's an HK sear could be had for $600-700. But a dozen at that price and hold until 2024, sell for $45K each, nice little retirement nest egg. And as for taxes, how many gun owners who sell a long held piece do you know that declares the capital gain on it? Just askin'. Edited October 3 by Bill in Bama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhouston8 Posted October 3 Report Share Posted October 3 ^ agree. The lack of a carry cost ( unless you insure them) and the lack of an enforceable ( to date, private party ) are 2 big advantages of mgs v. stocks. I guess my main point is....it's prob best to buy transf mg bc you want to shoot and/or collect....not strictly for profit ( assuming you aren't a dealer). If you profit then great! You've beat out 99% of dude-hobbies like bass boats and muscle cars which almost never are truly profitable. mgs are a unique "hobby" in this regard. They usually appreciate...a ton in the 80's, 90's...and at a lower rate of appreciation in the 2000's ...but still up. I advocate separating ones "investments" from "hobbies" like machine gunning....that's my point . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted October 3 Report Share Posted October 3 7 hours ago, imacer said: Well again, if you are looking at this as an investment you don't just my MG's for your retirement. Plus somewhere you would calculate this risk, if you completely lost this, or got next to nothing for compesation. Which again goes back to point that the price when you buy is important to pay attention to. Its funny you bring that up beacuse I did an analysis on that as well. (that is below) Some of the most populus and wealty states are precluded out of this market.(17 States + 5 Territories) I know when I lived in Illinois really most NFA item ownership was day dream, and it only go worse since I left the state a couple years ago. NFA MG Illegal States & Territories Arkansas any cartridges above .30 or 7.63mm California Connecticut If brought before 2014, Legal Delaware District of Columbia Hawaii Illinois Iowa Massachusetts Licence Required *Basically Outlawed* Minnesota C&R Only New Jersey Licence Required *Basically Outlawed* New York Rhode Island Virginia* MG Need to Be Registered Washington Need to be Registered Before 1994 Wisconsin No Pistol Caliber MG's American Samoa Guam Northern Mariana Islands Puerto Rico U.S. Virgin Islands mg's in CT are still legal and transferable. CT law is confusing as the law was written by idiots Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnsonlmg41 Posted October 4 Report Share Posted October 4 9 hours ago, imacer said: Well again, if you are looking at this as an investment you don't just my MG's for your retirement. Plus somewhere you would calculate this risk, if you completely lost this, or got next to nothing for compesation. Which again goes back to point that the price when you buy is important to pay attention to. Its funny you bring that up beacuse I did an analysis on that as well. (that is below) Some of the most populus and wealty states are precluded out of this market.(17 States + 5 Territories) I know when I lived in Illinois really most NFA item ownership was day dream, and it only go worse since I left the state a couple years ago. NFA MG Illegal States & Territories Arkansas any cartridges above .30 or 7.63mm California Connecticut If brought before 2014, Legal Delaware District of Columbia Hawaii Illinois Iowa Massachusetts Licence Required *Basically Outlawed* Minnesota C&R Only New Jersey Licence Required *Basically Outlawed* New York Rhode Island Virginia* MG Need to Be Registered Washington Need to be Registered Before 1994 Wisconsin No Pistol Caliber MG's American Samoa Guam Northern Mariana Islands Puerto Rico U.S. Virgin Islands flawed data. MG's are legal in WI, WA, CA, MA, CT, and AR. They are also legal in most of the other states with specific licensing, so it can be done, but it can be substantially more work. Some of the states are a lost cause, but we did pick up full ownership in MI years ago and KS, so there were actual gains. Not sure the folks in American Samoa care much about NFA firearms? Might be easier there than CA? Purchase price on everything is important. My nephew bought a house 14 months ago at the peak and it has continuously lost value ever since. It could be 10 years before he breaks even? I saw a LOT of houses sell in 2007 and not break even until 2018. Perhaps you or your pension plan was a bond holder in General motors in 2009? Government stepped in and wiped you out. Or maybe you owned gold in the 30's? And then you weren't. Or you had a restaurant in 2021, and government killed it? Or had a government job and you got fired with no compensation for not being part of a chemical trial experiment based on falsified data? Difficult to predict what government will do? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark2 Posted October 4 Report Share Posted October 4 Keep in mind that in the end MG’s should be considered as a non essential luxury item that brings you joy, and not something guaranteed to provide an investment gain or return 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in Bama Posted Wednesday at 03:08 PM Report Share Posted Wednesday at 03:08 PM On 10/4/2024 at 3:34 PM, Mark2 said: Keep in mind that in the end MG’s should be considered as a non essential luxury item that brings you joy, and not something guaranteed to provide an investment gain or return Yes, I have always told my customers that while mg's MAY appreciate, and usually do, don't buy them as an investment, but as something they can enjoy shooting, collecting, admiring, etc. And I used to tell folks that they were much more fun to take out of the safe and play with than stock certificates(when stock certificates were even a thing)! That advice still applies today. It's just us poor dealers that gamble by buying and hoping to sell at a profit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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