Thumpy

Last recession

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Hey fellas I was wondering during the last recession did the value on mgs drop ? If so by how much ? Or did the mg market stay pretty stable? 

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THUMPY, PRIME FIREARMS OF ALL TYPES HAVE NEVER BEEN VICTIM OF THE RECESSION BLUE'S that's true in most cat's of collectables like "KEY" COINS, gold. silver, land ETC. yes the low end things certainly drop but many primes have GAINED during them. the SMART MONEY STILL PLAYS and anything under market is snatched so fast, its like it was never there.  we find ourselves in a  VERY UNUSUAL MARKET TODAY, because so many MAJOR COLLECTIONS have been broken up recently SOME key pieces have dropped. that's simply because all the "what if" or mad money has been spent already. nothing like this has happened b-4 in my 50+ years of playing in this market. it would have been even worse but the powers controlling the COURE'S collection used their heads and only put pieces rather than the entire lot in the market. records are still being broken to date.


I only accept postal money orders. contact me DIRECTLY before sending any funds                                           email  myoldiron@outlook.com        

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That's not entirely accurate.  There were fairly significant price declines from 2007-2010 (even the ever unreliable MGPG shows stagnation and deflation on most categories) after a good increase in prices during the early to mid 2000s. Of course prices rallied and have climbed well past their pre-recession highs. And even with the recent price declines over the past year and a half, prices are still well above those mid 2000 prices.

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6 hours ago, b_san said:

That's not entirely accurate.  There were fairly significant price declines from 2007-2010 (even the ever unreliable MGPG shows stagnation and deflation on most categories) after a good increase in prices during the early to mid 2000s. Of course prices rallied and have climbed well past their pre-recession highs. And even with the recent price declines over the past year and a half, prices are still well above those mid 2000 prices.

It's actually not remotely accurate.  I bought a lot of stuff on the cheap in that time frame.  Some guns dropped by almost 50%.  The peak was effectively the Stern auction, and some of the stuff still hasn't broken even, but much is just above those levels.  I'm not sure what a "prime" piece is, but if it's older than WWII it's probably dropped and likely will never recover like Model T prices.  As we say these days it's all about M16's and HK sears. 

Economic swings affect pretty much every asset class.  Expect another swing soon, since I hear the same commercials about interest only loans as I did in 2007, 84+ month car mortgages,  high prices and bidding on FL and vegas real estate, etc.  Why do you think the Buffet is scooping up more trailer parks.....because they will be the next goldmine when the next wave of mcmansioner's get kicked to the curb.....some of them for the second time.  All part of the grand plan from rules for radicals.

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THUMPY, just because I CHOSE to sell a 100% matching UNFIRED MG-34 well under market to gather quick funds, did not stop others sold at the same time from breaking records for examples in various conditions. BUT WORTHLESS PUBLICATIONS LIKE MGPG would have jumped all over the drop . they only use data they can access easily and often ignore many sources. READ THE DISCLOSURE IN THE PUBLICATION AND DECIDE FOR YOURSELF ITS ACTUAL VALUE. they have no way of accessing private offerings and many examples have a long waiting list of anxious buyers, in fact other than common arms few ever see the open market. not knowing what a "prime example" is say's it all. most famous well recognized collectors would have no problem with the term. MGPG and the BLUE BOOK OF GUN VALUES ? no shortage of bad info, missed info, misused data in either one, but I will admit the BLUE BOOK has managed to capitalize on laziness or LACK OF WILL and make a ton of money for the publisher.  VALUES all depend on how we treat and use that commodity called "money", it only has so much power of exchange. one day the "GAIN" in the market must end and when it happens, the "money" power will remain relative. I don't see $60k auto sears, but I do see $100k M-60's and the like.  since the mid 60's I have maintained a "want list" for several museums, and collectors, many that choose to keep those "wants" unknown to the general public and anything added to those collections will always be unknown. YES there are downward dips in the market, the same as record highs but seldom will they carry a full quarter term .  when the DICK WRAY inventory was dumped on the market starting in 2013, MOST of the new "sideplate" MG's fell as much as 40%. IE; VICKERS, MAXIMS, BROWNINGS. there has been a slow recovery and many have reached old levels and are getting harder to find. this DEC 6 Rock island sale a PHX arms M-37 brng with extras hammered at $10k but many NFA examples hit new highs in whats commonly known as a DEAD MARKET PLACE.  a perfect example was a DOCUMENTED WWII ITHACA M-37 TRENCH GUN with the release papers hammered at an unbelievable $32,500.00  obviously we all use different things to determine value and have our own buying trends that will have a different effect on the market . I WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE TRENDS, much to the joy of the folks I assist with their collections

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I only accept postal money orders. contact me DIRECTLY before sending any funds                                           email  myoldiron@outlook.com        

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Here's the problem, Thumpy. How much will prices go up before the next recession?  Will we save any money if the price falls to what it is now for a shooter? I'd love to see $3,000 MACs and Reisings too, as well as $6,000 AR and HK sears, but that probably ain't gonna happen.:(

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I'm gonna say they took about a 40% hit in value then. I only sold one MG in 2008. M1A1 Thompson valued at @$20,000 right before the crisis, ended up going for $14,000 late 2008 (thanks, second ex wife for me having to sell). It went to a buddy, so I didn't feel as bad. I made a decent profit (paid $1500/1600 for it ca.1990 and shot it a bunch). Five years later, I bought another for only $1k more than I sold the first one for. Basically a loan of $14,000 for five years for $1000 interest. They go for $20,000/25,000 now, so not as good as it could have been, but still.  M16's, M60's, MAC's, MP5's and some C&R guns seem to have bounced back even better.

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AH HAH! the magic phrase HAVING TO SELL raises its ugly head. the whole strength of that statement rests on how long you were willing to hold out. and the entire episode had zero effect on the true national trend. recently I sold a gun for $38k that I had turned down several $50k offers for not that long ago. WHY ?  I decided the ROOM and that amount at the time worked for me,. and during that exact time 2 examples of the same gun in much worse condition sold for $7k more offered to a larger customer base than I had. those sales NOT MINE followed the real trend.   I use the CAN BUY option to track actual value. with cash in hand how much do you actually have to spend to go out and get one in given time frame. better yet, could you actually buy even ONE? again the "key" or "prime"  examples or types  are often not available at ANY PRICE , and that has always been an issue.  I know of one gent seeking just a "decent" COLT 21-A and he has been for several months. NOT A SINGLE EXAMPLE CAN BE FOUND AT ANY PRICE !  yes there is one that barely makes "shooter grade". its been on the market for half a year and unless the price drops 25% its going to stay.


I only accept postal money orders. contact me DIRECTLY before sending any funds                                           email  myoldiron@outlook.com        

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I guess I could have sold other stuff, but at the time a fast dollar was faster than ten slow dimes. It went to a buddy, so all the better.  I don't sell guns for a living, so I don't have to get top dollar. Coincidentally,  the last four machine guns I've sold since 2010 were sold at approximately 3/4 of market value and the last for I've purchased since 2010 were purchased (all word of mouth via my circle of machine gun friends) at approximately 3/4 market value. It's all in good fun ; )

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Thumpy....The MG market WAS affected...but not to the degree that SP500 /stocks or houses (in many parts of the USA) were. I made a few purchases during that timeframe including a $10k hk sear (and passed on a $10k RDIAS unfortunately from same seller in the same transaction!! Stooopid me!).

 

Here's what happens as I see it. Economy shits out....MG holders typically dont panic sell (as they might  do w  stocks ). I'd say MGs in general - and I mean shooter grade MGs that are currently in the $5,000 - $50,000 range (not one off miniguns used in Predator movies or super rare matching SN nazi marked MP43s, or whatever ) dropped on average maybe 20%. I mean from early 2008 thru say about 2011. Then it was soon off to the races for most MGs...esp HK sears, RDIAS.  Beltfeds didnt get that rocket appreciation that the sears did.

 

So... having been active in the indiv. buyers market during that time (and more) I'd say 20% dip on average is a fair answer to your question.

 

I most certainly did NOT see 50% off and I most certainly did NOT see a stable market w/o sub 10% dips.

 

20%.

 

 

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