Thumpy

Is there really only 179,000 or so transferable’s

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Hey fellas I was wondering do you really think there is only ~179,000 transferable mgs out there or do you think there’s more? I kinda feel like there’s got to be more out there then that the atf just for some reason have them accounted for properly but yea I figured I’d ask some of your folks wiser on this subject what your beliefs/opinions where.

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Probably less if you count guns that have become contraband, or were damaged beyond repair over the years. Then you have guns that are registered to people long since dead with questionable status. So over time there is attrition. Eventually they will wear out. Then again the way things are going they may go the way of bumpstocks and become contraband. Who knows. 

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I JUST DONT SEE ANY WAY THAT much change will be tolerated in the "basic" firearms laws, BUT I do predict SEVERAL big chunks will be bitten off. if something happens to the NFA registry, machine guns will only increase in another category that gets little attention these days. PERSONAL SAMPLES!


I only accept postal money orders. contact me DIRECTLY before sending any funds                                           email  myoldiron@outlook.com        

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I would love to have a breakdown of the number of transferable MGs are out there sorted by type/category/config, etc. Does this info exist anywhere?

example:

Colt SP1: x,xxx

Colt M16A1: xx,xxx

Polytech/SWD AK (7.62): xxx

Vector/Group Uzi: x,xxx

etc, etc. 

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The biggest collectors of transferable machine guns are the ATF, FBI, ( just to name just two Fed agencies with confiscatory powers) and local Law Enforcement. Guns that the Feds seize don't regularly come back into circulation.

179K in current circulation? Seriously doubt that!

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On 7/25/2019 at 2:38 AM, Charles Cox said:

Probably less if you count guns that have become contraband, or were damaged beyond repair over the years. Then you have guns that are registered to people long since dead with questionable status. So over time there is attrition. Eventually they will wear out. Then again the way things are going they may go the way of bumpstocks and become contraband. Who knows. 

Local Sheriff deputy who is also a MG owner told me that 2 MGs are in the bottom of Lake Hartwell. Guys wife got pissed at her husband grabbed 2 MK760 or similar and threw them in the lake at night. 

Happened years ago, she was punished from what I remember him saying. 

 

Either way there are 2 right there no longer in circulation. 

 

 

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Two less MK 760's - no big loss to the NFA community. Too bad he didn't have a West Hurley collection!

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Hello, new to forums.  at least asking questions. What are PERSONAL SAMPLES? Thanks for all the information you guys talk about. I'm afraid there's not very many young people in this arena and we need good information from all the seasoned mg owners out here.

Thanks 

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I think what you mean are Pre-Samples. Those are guns that ONLY Class 3 dealers can possess.  Pretty sure they can keep them once their license expires. They are not for mere mortals like you or I. What you want to look for is something that is fully transferable. Those unfortunately are the most expensive. And remember buy what you like because you like it because if you are buying it as an investment you will be sorely disappointed.

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 NOPE, the term "PERSONAL SAMPLES" is 100 % correct! and they are controlled by an entirely separate registry  NONE! while I don't use or suggest that class and play the game forced on us by the NFA.  PERSONAL SAMPLES have always been with us and always will. I suspect the numbers have grown recently and the category may become dominate following the 2020 debacle


I only accept postal money orders. contact me DIRECTLY before sending any funds                                           email  myoldiron@outlook.com        

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I love the term "Personal Samples". 

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There is a subgun manufacturer in Georgia that makes 99 new guns a year from tubes that were manufactured and registered prior to the 1986 May ban.  He adds about 100 guns a year into circulation.

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1 hour ago, RogerD said:

There is a subgun manufacturer in Georgia that makes 99 new guns a year from tubes that were manufactured and registered prior to the 1986 May ban.  He adds about 100 guns a year into circulation.

Are you talking about Jim Wilson? Technically built or not they are already on the registry.

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Here are the numbers and this is from BATFE: So the count is pretty close at 175,977 transferrable.

The following information corresponds to your request for an exact count of transferrable pre 86 machineguns, post May 86 machineguns, and sale sample machineguns, registered in the National Firearms Registration Transfer Record System (NFRTR).

                        Restricted 922(o)        297,667

                        Sales Samples               17,020

                        Pre 86                          175,977


NFA Investments and www.investmentguns.com

FFL/SOT Class III (63) Dealer in Portland, OR. Since 2005 

Cell #’s 503-720-2280 or escheid@comcast.net

Heckler & Koch weapons, Colt M16’s and Pre 86 Dealer Sample weapons.

All items posted for sale, are in inventory and NFA items are on Form 3’s ready for transfer.

 

 

 

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Dscheid, you mean we're part of one of the smallest minority groups in America?

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On 10/16/2019 at 3:03 AM, BrettBaker said:

Dscheid, you mean we're part of one of the smallest minority groups in America?

Any guesses how many transferable owners there are?

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14 hours ago, Patwa said:

Any guesses how many transferable owners there are?

I’d guess about 20k owners just from doing the numbers it doesn’t seem like any mg owner only has one from what it seems

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I would say that if I had to take a guess I would say there are between 30,000 to 50,000 registered owners.

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On 9/23/2019 at 6:01 PM, Schmeisser Guy said:

I think what you mean are Pre-Samples. Those are guns that ONLY Class 3 dealers can possess.  Pretty sure they can keep them once their license expires. They are not for mere mortals like you or I. What you want to look for is something that is fully transferable. Those unfortunately are the most expensive. And remember buy what you like because you like it because if you are buying it as an investment you will be sorely disappointed.

Prices are fairly stagnant now, I am new to MGs but have bought a few already because I see this moment in time as the best time to buy in recent years, and probably the last time it will be this stagnant. Been tracking prices for years and finally jumped into the market. 

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I'd guess the number is less than 10k.  The number of transferable guns is somewhat fluent, with a bunch more being created since 86', but many, many more being destroyed for various reasons.  There are still transferables in gov't and museums that have large numbers of guns, not to mention a substantial number of private owners with over 100.  20 guys owning 100 guns is over 1% of the total and I'm quite sure there are more than that.  If you go to major shows or shoots you often see the same people, and even at KCR with attendance of 15K, there are probably less than 300 owners of transferables, even though you see a lot of guns, the now major part of the line are guys with post samples who've never owned a transferable gun.  I know guys that had them, sold them for an 02/07 to get more guns, often getting 6 or or more guns for the price of one nice transferable. 

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Then again, there are plenty of guys like me who own just one.:(

At my one informal shoot I go to every year, a couple of years ago there were 2 of us owning one MG, 1 had  three, and I forgot if the other guy had 3 or 4. There are a couple of other owners of transferrables  we know of in my county, which has a population under 110,000.

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I suspect that the concentration of machineguns is actually much more skewed (concentrated) than most people realize.

First let's look in general at how skewed U.S. gun ownership.  About 30% of people own a gun in the US or about 99 million people.  But 50% of all guns are owned by just 3% of the U.S. population (about 10 million people).  Quite concentrated.  But the transferable machinegun world is another matter entirely.

There are basically 4 types of fully transferable machinegun owners:

1) Wealthy persons - usually own numerous and multiple rare machineguns (often dozens - if not hundreds or more)

2) Average income/asset individuals - usually own 1 or 2 machineguns at the most, they just can't afford to buy anymore

3) Heirs - rarely keep the machinegun which is usually quickly sold for the money at auction or to a dealer.

4) The "old" guys - "older" individuals who have acquired dozens of machineguns for decades well before the runup in prices.

Hence, the wealthy and the "old" guys really have the bulk of the transferable machineguns out there.

Everyone I know who owns a machinegun doesn't own just one, they own dozens or more and they are either an "old guy" or wealthy but are usually both.  

The incredible run up in transferable machinegun prices has made this concentration of machineguns held by just the few even more concentrated because only the wealthy can afford to buy them now.  As prices continue to rise, the effect will increase.   Transferable machineguns are a rich man's game.   

My guess is that a couple thousand wealthy/"older" individuals own the bulk (70 to 90+%) of all the transferable machineguns in the registry.

And several thousand other private individuals make up the remaining ownership.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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